How Likely is it that Alabama Loses a Game in the Regular Season?

Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban coaches during practice at Thomas-Drew Practice Fields in Tuscaloosa, AL on Tuesday, Sep 13, 2022.

To nobody’s great shock, Alabama has started the 2022 campaign off 2-0. What maybe does surprise some people is how they have looked doing it. Of course, they destroyed Utah State 55-0 in the opener as they were supposed to, but the Tide’s performance against Texas in a game they were favored by 20 plus points left many scratching their head wondering what is going on with this team.

Over the past couple of years, Saban’s bunch has struggled a bit on the road, with the Texas A&M game and the Iron Bowl last year and now the Texas game this year as prime examples. The road schedule this season is far from easy, and based on how the offense has looked so far, it’s certainly fair to wonder the likelihood that Alabama drops a game in the regular season this year.

If they do suffer a loss in the first twelve, it likely will not be at Bryant-Denny. The rest of the way at home they have ULM, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Austin Peay, and the Iron Bowl. Let’s throw out ULM, Vandy, Mississippi State, and Austin Peay. They will not lose these games.

As for Texas A&M, who is struggling brutally offensively and coming off a loss to Appalachian State at home, I believe they will be okay there as well. The Iron Bowl is the Iron Bowl, but after last year’s scare at Jordan-Hare, I think the Tide will take care of business rather easily in this one as well.

But the road schedule, where the Tide have suffered, is where it gets pretty tough this season. The rest of the way, Alabama takes on Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, and Ole Miss on the road.

Arkansas appears to have a legitimate star QB in KJ Jefferson, as does Tennessee in Hendon Hooker. Both teams will put up more points than Texas did, and if Alabama plays as poorly as they did in Austin, they will lose one of these games.

As for LSU, Death Valley is one of the toughest places to play in the country and Nick Saban knows that, even the Tigers are struggling. And playing at Vaught-Hemingway in Oxford has been a thorn in the side of this team for years now.

I’m not sure where it’s going to come, but if I had to predict now, I would guess that Alabama is probably going to lose a game at some point during this regular season. The struggles on offense along with the difficult road schedule might just combine for it to be too difficult to go 12-0. If coach Saban can’t get his team to start playing a whole lot better, and quickly, the Tide could be in trouble in two weeks with a trip to Fayetteville against Sam Pittman and Arkansas.