Aug 312012
 

    You think it’s hard to find a good tight end in the NFL? It’s just as hard in fantasy.

    Luckily, you only have to start one of them on your team.

    The tight end position has certainly evolved in the past two seasons, since the emergence of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. They have make Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates look like children in comparison to their fantasy impacts.

    I’m not saying that Gonzalez and Gates are washed up, but Graham and Gronk have made owners consider taking them in the first or second rounds.

    The new era of fantasy tight ends have become comparable to the production of wide receivers, primarily because of their red zone presence. Gronz and Graham scored 17 and 11 touchdowns respectively last season, almost doubling many of their peers’ totals.

     The problem is that they had such tremendous seasons, it’s hard envisioning them repeating those performances this season.

    When analyzing the tight end pool in your draft, you want to watch out for some key factors similar to receivers: how important are they to their offense? and do they catch more standard passes than touchdowns?

     Every player is analyzed by how important they are to their offense, but tight ends are either heavily or rarely used in the passing game. You want to get a player that will be treated like a receiver, not a blocker.

     What do I mean by a tight end that catches more standard passes than touchdowns? I’m talking about guys that are used as just a safety net, check down route kind of player. They’ll be very productive as far as getting their share of targets, but they’re not as effective in the red zone.

     On the other hand, there are tight ends that are solely targets in the red zone. If you look at tight ends like Scott Chandler and Owen Daniels, they have a trend of only being targeted in the end zone because of their size. They don’t have eye-popping touchdown totals, but when you watch the games you’ll see that they aren’t the first option to stretch the field. Chandler was on fire to start the season, as were the Bills, and quickly became viewed as a must-add in the first two weeks. That’s pretty much as long as he lasted in fantasy conversations. He fell off so quickly, Chandler became an afterthought.

    You have to treat this position as a high priority on draft day. You know how important it is to just lock down positions with a player that you don’t have to worry about upgrading in the future, so take advantage of it early.

    Just how early? Let’s take a look at the top 10 Fantasy Tight End Options for 2012…

Jimmy Graham- He was the runner up for most touchdowns by a tight end in 2011, but led all tight ends in receptions. The Saints decided to let Robert Meachem walk in the offseason, pushing Graham as one of the top two targets for Brees. He’s utilized like a receiver, averaging six catches per game and favored near the red zone. Graham tripled his production from the previous season in yards and receptions, which is somewhat concerning. Owners must consider such a tremendous jump in production over just one season. The reason why I’m saying that Graham won’t drop off by much is because he has less competition to share targets with, he’s undoubtedly Brees’ favorite target, and he is a red zone machine. He will be the best option to draft between him and Gronk, primarily because New Orleans isn’t as crowded as far as receiving targets as New England is.

Rob Gronkowski-When you’re talking about a red zone threat, you have to mention this guy. In his rookie season, he was able to score 10 touchdowns. That season made quite an impression on fantasy owners, seeing as it’s difficult for a tight end to score in the double digits any year. He followed up with 17 in 2011 for, along with doubling his receptions and yardage totals. So what was the factor the previous season besides being a rookie? It’s not an unrealistic jump in production as far as receptions and yardage, but there wasn’t as many overbearing targets for Brady last season. Now that Brandon Lloyd is in town and Josh McDaniels takes over the offense, you have to take in those factors that his numbers could come back to reality this season. The Patriots will still throw the ball like it’s going out of style, but there are five targets to spread it around to: Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch, Wes Welker, and now Brandon Lloyd. Doesn’t sound like there’s going to be room in the gameplan for running, much less just throwing to Gronk. Just keep in mind that his numbers could come back down to Earth this season and that you don’t have to necessarily spend a first or second round on him in drafts.

Vernon Davis- He went through his high and low points throughout 2011 as far as receptions were concerned, but has become more of a focal point in the 49ers offense. Davis actually had a drop in production from the previous season and has slightly declined since his best season in 2009. Even with Randy Moss in town, Davis remains the number one option in the Niners’ passing attack. He blew up in the playoffs, showcasing that he and Alex Smith continue to build chemistry, which is why Davis is primed to return to his typical 900+ yard season and possibly get back to scoring in the double digits. The NFC West is a weak division, Randy Moss will help open up targets for Davis, and he will finally get some sort of continuity in the offensive philosophy for the first time in his career. Davis is ranked around the top 5 options at the position, which makes him a great value pick around the fifth round.

Antonio Gates- He didn’t do owners any favors for five weeks of the 2011 season after going down with an injury in Week 1, but bounced back nicely in the second half. Gates obviously isn’t the same player that he was when Drew Brees was throwing him the ball, but the departure of Vincent Jackson sets him up to the unquestioned top target in San Diego. The problem is that he was more productive in less games during the previous season. Gates will look to have his first healthy season in three years, which could make him a very underrated pick on draft day. He has all of the great qualities you look for in a fantasy tight end: top target in his offense, good quarterback, has receiver-type qualities, red zone threat, and can stretch the field. If you don’t get a chance to draft the top two targets, you should feel confident in this selection.

Tony Gonzalez- He doesn’t come off as the no-brainer option to draft that he was during his days with the Chiefs, but all Gonzalez does is produce. If this really is his last season, you’d think that he would want to go out with a bang. Gonzalez is the third best target in the Falcons offense, with Julio Jones developing. He’s caught 80 passes in 2011, which is why you should want him on your team this year. Gonzalez won’t get you a lot of yard after the catch, but he’s still a great red zone target. Teams are going to be focusing a lot on the combo of White and Jones, leaving plenty of opportunity for Gonzalez. You can get him extremely late in drafts this year, so view him as a safe bet when you’re looking to fill your TE spot late.

Jason Witten- He teases his owners throughout the fantasy season, never knowing how he’ll perform. One game he’s the leading receiver, the next game he might only have three catches. No matter the numbers, he always contributes by either having a lone touchdown or a number of big plays. Witten barely missed producing a fourth 1,000 yard season in five years, but that level of production makes him as valuable as a receiver. This guy gets knocked around in pre-season draft rankings every year, no matter how productive he is. There’s no secret that Witten is Romo’s favorite target, especially with Dez Bryant and Miles Austin underachieving. He can stretch the field, score in the red zone, and be a solid contributor on a regular basis. He’s 50-50 to play in the first week, due to a spleen injury, so keep that in mind when you’re drafting him.

Aaron Hernandez He has the skill set to be an elite tight end, but unfortunately he’s not even the top tight end on his team. That being said, he was able to catch 79 passes last season for seven touchdowns. Those aren’t bad numbers for someone that’s not the top player at his position on his own team. Another impressive factor about Hernandez is the fact that he only missed having a 1,000 yard season by only 90 yards. He’s not the first name that you think of when drafting a tight end, but in fantasy the numbers don’t lie. You can get him extremely late and for a huge discount. Hernandez has the ability to produce receiver numbers, so why not take advantage of his rank instead of panicking when you don’t draft one of the top two options?

Brandon Pettigrew-He’s now produced back-to-back seasons of 70+ catches, but still has to work on getting his touchdown totals up. We all know about Calvin Johnson’s pending Madden curse, which could set up others to prosper. Pettigrew is the second best weapon in the Lions offense. If, or when, Johnson goes down, Pettigrew’s stock would skyrocket. He continues to develop as a safety net for Matthew Stafford, but it will take a lot for him to take over as the number one target in Detroit. You should view Pettigrew as part of the second wave of tight ends to draft. He’s not amongst the elite tight ends that can be counted on like a receiver, but this could be the year that he’s relied on more to assume that type of role. View Pettigrew as more of a second tier option with upside when you’re drafting him.

Jermichael Finley He’s coming off of his best season yet, but Finley is not amongst the top options to draft just yet. Finley’s best season consisted of only 55 catches, but did produce eight touchdowns. I say only 55 because the other tight ends to draft have anywhere between 70 and 80 catches on average. Those 20-30 extra catches mean a lot when you’re drafting for a PPR league. The other knock against Finely is the fact that there are too man quality targets to throw the ball to in Green Bay. He’s battling Greg Jennings and an emerging Jordy Nelson. The Packers love to throw the ball, so the strategy of the offense isn’t the issue. Green Bay made a note that Finley and Jennings both had underachieving seasons in 2011, so there is some upside to picking Finley. Once again, when you can’t draft upside. You have to go after the players that you expect to produce. There’s too much uncertainty on Finley’s importance, which is why you shouldn’t reach to get him. If he becomes the best available option to draft, fire away.

Jacob Tamme-Now we know that we’re really getting desperate when Tamme becomes the best available draft option. At this point in the draft pool, you’re basing your selection on potential. Tamme was brought in over Dallas Clark to reunite with Peyton Manning, which speaks volumes. He’ll be the top tight end in Denver, but will be the third best option to throw to. During his last season with Peyton, he caught 67 passes for only four touchdowns. They’re not eye-popping numbers, but his upside is what gets him into the top 10. Anytime you’re a receiver option for Peyton Manning, you’ve got instant fantasy value. This is when things are in desperation mode and you’re trying to convince yourself that this is a good move. When you’re looking at the rest of the draft pool, you’re basically saying to yourself “it’s not that he’s good, it’s just everyone else is that bad”. Tamme has upside, and you’re trying to fill a spot. You could do worse.

 Posted by at 2:42 pm
Aug 292012
 

     As deep as the receiver pool is to select from, you can’t overlook locking down a dominant playmaker on draft day.

     Points Per Reception leagues are the most popular formats in fantasy and the money is made at this position.

     You can either value someone like Wes Welker that leads the league in receptions just about every year or a Calvin Johnson that can get you all of the deep touchdowns. Either way, the mindset of solidifying your receiver spots with reliable options that you expect to perform doesn’t change.

     There are very few players out there that can dominate the competition on a weekly basis, making the receiver position such a toss up. The key factor is to get someone that will perform more times than not. They’re all going to have a rough day here and there, otherwise cornerbacks would be out of jobs.

     The main qualities that you want to look for in a receiver are: Does he have a viable quarterback? What kind of offense does he play in? Does he have to share the spotlight on offense? What’s the competition in his division like?

     Brace yourself, that’s a lot to think about in the sixty seconds you have to draft the right player.

     That’s why you do the research before hand.

     If you look at someone like Reggie Wayne, who had the likes of Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter throwing to him in 2011, there’s no surprise why he went from one of the best options to own to merely underachieving. Now that he has Andrew Luck, he’ll be a better option. I didn’t say elite, but better.

     I know that we don’t have all the time in the world to research the offensive strategies of teams, but you can easily make a quick decision on whether or not that team actually runs more or throws it more. If you look at the Packers, who only scored 12 rushing touchdowns in 2011, it’s a no-brainer. On the other hand, don’t expect a team like the Vikings to throw it every down with a back like AP in the offense.

     When you’re thinking about selecting a star receiver, consider the other people that play in their offense. Just because he’s the best receiver, that doesn’t mean that he’s the focal point of the offense. The reason why Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are up on the list every year is because there is no other option in their respective offenses. Like the theory with running backs, they are their team’s offense. Sometimes it’s best to roll with a slot receiver because he’s getting those short route targets that generate a lot of points for catches.

     Every year, owners try to find the next Randy Moss or Wes Welker on other teams and end up missing. Last season was no different when everyone was on the Eric Decker bandwagon in the first half of the season. When the comparisons come up, it’s always “he’s a Wes Welker-type of player.” What do you mean? They catch the ball a lot? Isn’t that their job?

     It’s a lot easier to think of is this person a deep threat with their size and speed or a safety net.

     You can’t go wrong with either type of player, but the deep threats have the biggest upside.

     There are very few receivers that deserve to be considered in the first round, so you can wait until at least the second or third. It’s a very deep position, because teams carry at least three options, so pace yourself.

     Let’s take a look at the most reliable receivers to draft in 2012…

Calvin Johnson- Reliable? Doesn’t he have the Madden curse? Yes he does, but he’s also one of the very few receivers who deserve consideration in the first round. He can catch a ton of passes, score a lot of touchdowns, and dominate as a deep threat. Johnson doesn’t have many bad days. The only way he’ll have a bad day is if the Lions are on a bye week. Detroit is scrounging for a running back for this season, so you can expect the Lions offense to rely on Johnson early and often. You will always have the Madden Curse in the back of your mind, but that’s a risk you’ll just have to take in the first round. If the best six players (Rice, Rodgers, McCoy, Brady, Brees, Foster) are off the board, you’re going to have a decision to make: bite the bullet and draft the cursed Johnson or pass him up and hope to take him in the second round? Odds are that someone in your league is willing to take a chance. Are you?

Brandon Marshall- So he’s named the Pro Bowl MVP and now he’s the number two receiver to draft? It’s a little more than just that. That was a preview of what to expect this year. Trust me. I covered Marshall last year with the Dolphins and I learned all I needed to know. He’s a lot smarter than he leads on, he’s a freak of an athlete, and he wasn’t happy with Dolphins. Let’s be honest, who was last year? Knock him all you want to saying that he wanted to play with a better quarterback, but fantasy owners were thinking it too. He re-unites with Jay Cutler this season, from their days with the Broncos, and it’s scary to think about how good they’re going to be. We’re talking about a tandem that had a couple of games when they connected on 12 passes. Marshall is primed for a huge bounce-back season to being the fantasy stud we all remember before he went to Miami. His trade to Chicago is the biggest fantasy offseason move, even bigger than Peyton to Denver. He could fall to the third round, but he’s not a reach in the second.

 Larry Fitzgerald- Speaking of quarterback-reciever duos. Can we please get this guy a decent passer in Arizona? It doesn’t matter if it’s going to be Kolb or Skelton, they’re both nothing compared to what Warner did for Fitzgerald’s fantasy value. So why doesn’t he drop down the rankings? He’s just that good. Fitzgerald will get his numbers no matter what because he is the Cardinals’ offense. That could change this year with the emergence of Ryan Williams and the Cards actually end up running the ball, but that won’t be for a while. I’m just saying, if this guy can catch 80 passes and produce over 1200 yards receiving, then he doesn’t deserve to drop out of the second round. The fact that he’s that productive on a dud team like the Cardinals should speak volumes to you. The other factor is that he plays in the weakest division in the NFL, with the NFC West. I know the 49ers are an emerging defense, but they aren’t exactly sporting an elite secondary. Go ahead and plan on taking Fitzgerald in the second round of your draft.

Wes Welker- He’s coming off a season where he had career highs in almost every category. It was a nice bounce back season for him after a dismal 2010. This was all in the midst of the breakout of Gronkowski. Brandon Lloyd followed Josh McDaniels to New England, but that shouldn’t take away from Welker’s targets. Whether you’re in a PPR league or not, Welker is someone that you just can’t undervalue. You’ll try to downplay him on draft day because he’s not highly ranked, but all the guy does is produce. He thrived in McDaniels’ offense, so you can expect the same production this year. Despite all of the contract issues during the offseason, Welker isn’t the type of player that slacks off to get his way. He may not get you double digit touchdowns, but he’ll make up for it with all of the passes he’ll catch. Stop telling yourself this is the year he falls off and just take a reliable producer.

Roddy White- He’s be ranked higher if it wasn’t for Julio Jones. There’s no question about how much the Falcons are going to pass the ball, it’s just a matter of if there will be enough opportunities to go around. White isn’t exactly a red zone threat, like Tony Gonzalez, but he can stretch the field. The one factor against him is the fact that he led the league in drops in drops, primarily because Terrell Owens didn’t play last year. Regardless, it’s a very important factor to consider. He missed going three straight seasons of double-digit touchdowns, but has managed to be reliable for at least 80 catches and 1100 yards receiving per season. You can’t ask for much more from a NFC South receiver. Jones will eat into his targets, but White could drop slightly back from catching 100+ passes these past two seasons to back to a 80+ type of player. You can’t go wrong with taking him on draft day.

Hakeem Nicks- It’s crazy to think that Nicks is just entering his fourth season as a pro. He’s a slight risk to take in drafts just because he broke a bone in his foot this spring, so his Week 1 status is still up in the air. Beyond that, you’re looking at a guy that can get you close to 80 catches and over 1,000 yards per season. The Giants don’t have a dominant tight end this year, but they do have Victor Cruz to distract defenses. Those two factors there, set up Nicks for a big season. He’s been the number one target for New York since he was drafted, but this year he’ll have some help. Defenses will be preparing more for Cruz after his success in 2011, opening up more targets and one-on-one coverage for Nicks to take advantage of. If you’re find with the possibility of Nicks missing Week 1, then go ahead and get him in the third round.

Marques Colston- He’s starting to get some competition with Jimmy Graham on who’s Brees’ favorite target, but that won’t keep Colston from being good for 80 catches and 1,000 yards. Graham is the obvious favorite for end zone targets, but Colston can still stretch the field and be a safety net. The Saints offense is going to be different to say the least this year. The fact that they could carry five viable running backs on the roster suggests that they’re going to have a more balanced attack this season. He’s only had one year when he didn’t crack fifty seventy catches, but that was due to injuries in 2008. Colston is one of the most reliable receivers to own and can be a major contributor on a weekly basis. Teams could start to focus more on Graham, opening things for Colston. The Saints love to throw the ball, so someone’s gotta catch it. You can get Colston a lot later than most of the players on this list, so take advantage of the discount.

Dwayne Bowe- He’s signed his tender, he’s in camp, he’s playing, but just how good will he be? Brian Daboll is known as a running backs miracle worker, but he also knows how to get the most out of his receivers. The Chiefs have Steve Breaston and the emerging Jonathan Baldwin to utilize on offense, but Bowe is still the top target. Matt Cassell isn’t that great, but Daboll was able to do a lot with him that one year in New England. He did take a step back in 2011 after scoring 15 touchdowns in 2010, but Bowe is playing for a new contract with another team after this season. What motivates players more than money? Especially if you play for the Chiefs. He can produce 75+ catches and 1,000 yards on the season, he just has to become more of an end zone threat. Bowe’s ranked way down the list after his touchdown drop-off last season, so consider him a steal this year.

Greg Jennings- You want to talk about under-achieving? Greg Jennings just hasn’t been a consistent player throughout his career. When you look at players that have to share the spotlight, you have to consider Green Bay. There are just too many targets to share the ball. It’s great for Aaron Rodgers owners, but bad for everyone else. It basically comes down to whoever’s hot that week. Jennings has only caught 80 passes once in his career, double digit touchdowns twice, and over 1,000 yards just three times. That’s all in a seven year career. His numbers were down in all categories in 2011, from the previous season, including failing to produce his fourth straight 1,000 yard season. I’m not knocking Jennings’ ability, but the numbers don’t lie. This is a case where just because the guy is pre-ranked high, doesn’t mean he’s going to pay off. Is he better than some of the other options out there that didn’t make this list like an Andre Johnson? Yes. The difference is, Jennings can be a deep threat and catch a lot of passes, while Johnson is hit or miss and one-dimensional. That’s not even considering how injury prone Johnson is. Just keep in mind when you select Jennings that he has to share the spotlight.

Vincent Jackson- Same player, new uniform. Vincent Jackson finally has the contract he wanted and is playing with a team where he’ll be the star offensive player once again. Josh Freeman isn’t exactly the most elite option to be throwing the ball to him, but he’s never had a top target like Jackson. He’s only had three seasons of catching remotely around 60 passes, but he averages close to 19 yards per catch. In Greg Schiano’s offense, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to catch the ball. If you look at how successful Kenny Britt was for him at Rutgers, Jackson is primed to have his best season yet as a pro. Schiano does love to run the football, but he uses the pass to set up run. These pros are a lot more talented than the level of players he had at Rutgers, so just expect the Bucs to have a highly productive offense. Jackson is way down the draft board rankings, so you can afford to take a flier on him around the fifth or sixth rounds.

 Posted by at 11:33 am
Aug 282012
 

     We go from the deepest position to draft in fantasy, to the most important one.

     Running backs are a dime a dozen amongst fantasy leagues, often times causing you to reach for them in order to obtain any type of quality.

     Every year we see an unknown or overlooked back take the spotlight as soon as they have their first big game. Owners scrounge to put in a waiver claim for them and then it’s a gamble from there. A lot of backs that have never been feature backs either go two ways: they get burnt out and injured or they underachieve after their breakout.

      In 2011, the best waiver wire pickup for running backs was DeMarco Murray. He was a third round draft pick by Dallas, the sixth running back taken overall.

      When you look at the backs that went before him, none of them had relevant fantasy rookie seasons. All Murray did was break Cowboy and All-Time NFL rookie records for yards in a game, yards per attempt average, and was the face of Dallas’ offense. The only thing that kept Murray from being one of the top running backs in fantasy was when he suffered a fractured right ankle and a high ankle sprain against the Giants in Week 14.

      Is there another DeMarco Murray out there this season? There always is. What there isn’t, is an abundance of reliable options to draft.

     You would think with 32 teams that there would be enough options to go around for every team to get at least two quality runners, but that is far from the case on an annual basis.

     When you’re digging for sleepers in the middle rounds of your draft, you’ll actually find that the best options go undrafted.

     So how do you find them?

     You have to look for unstable backfields. Teams that don’t have that no-brainer feature back and have either brought in a highly regarded free agent or drafted a wishful savior.

      Last year Murray started the season as the third string back, behind Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, and was just waiting for the right opportunity to take over.

      This year, you might want to look at teams that have options that are either breaking down towards the tail end of their career or ones that just haven’t panned out. Let’s be honest, the NFC West is full of those.

      It’s crazy to think that Steven Jackson was actually once the unanimous overall recommended option to draft. Since then, he hasn’t exactly given owners a reason to want to trust him.

      Beanie Wells has done what just about every other Jim Tressel Buckeye product has done, underachieve tremendously in the NFL.

      If you remember back to last year, the Cardinals selected former Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams. He suffered a ruptured patella tendon during a pre-season game against the Packers and was done for the year. Williams is the ideal candidate for this year’s fantasy running back breakout. If you look at the factors: Wells isn’t the dominant back he was drafted to be, Williams is a dual-threat, the Cardinals offense isn’t exactly thriving these days, and Ken Whisenhunt loves to run the ball.

     Unfortunately all of those factors doesn’t put Ryan Williams into the top 10 running backs that you must draft NOW, but that will change as the season goes a long.

      Let’s take a look at the reliable rushers that you need to go after in your draft early and often…

Ray Rice He was my top ranked option at running back last season and he remains at that spot this season. Trust me, I got a lot of raised eyebrows for that call last season, but the owners who followed through quickly agreed in Week 1. Rice is in the perfect offense for a fantasy running back: The Ravens use the run to set up the pass, Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron loves running the ball, Rice is a dual threat, and Joe Flacco isn’t exactly elite. Just to give you an idea of how weak Baltimore’s passing attack is, Rice led the team with 76 receptions in 2011. He enters this season with no competition to share or take carries away from him, especially with two rookies behind him. The offense essentially runs through him, with explains ranking second in the NFL last season with 291 total carries. Rice averages 4.7 yards per carry and can be the most reliable back in the league. You could go a lot of different directions at running back in the first six picks, but you can hardly find anyone else that essentially is his entire team’s offense.

LeSean McCoy ‘Ol Shady has been one of the best running backs to own in fantasy ever since his second NFL season. He would be a candidate for the overall fantasy back if it wasn’t for the other weapons in the Eagles offense and the fact that his quarterback likes to do some running himself. McCoy slightly trailed Foster for rush attempts last season with 273, but he did lead all running backs in rushing touchdowns with 17. The only person that beat him out was Cam Newton. McCoy averages close to five yards per carry and over six per reception, making him one of the elite dual threats in the league. You can expect the Eagles to hand the ball off a little more this season with the idea of trying to protect Vick a lot more. He’s been taking some shots early into this pre-season and Andy Reid will encourage Vick to not scramble as much this year. McCoy is a dual threat in an explosive offense, there will be more emphasis on the running game, he’s an elite scorer, and can turn any play into a big one. There’s no reason he should fall out of the top six picks in your draft.

Arian Foster He is the favorite by most fantasy experts to be this year’s overall pick in drafts, but he doesn’t have the importance in Houston that Rice has in Baltimore. Foster bounced back nicely last season, when healthy, and will look to take it to another level this season. Another reason why Foster isn’t the unanimous overall selection, even at his position, is the fact that there is a very viable back right behind him on the depth chart in Ben Tate. During Foster’s absence early into 2011, Tate showed owners why he was so highly coveted coming out of Auburn. Tate also went through his injury woes and a waiting period, but anyone that started him during the first three weeks benefited nicely. Foster is a dual threat back that ranked in the top of the league in rush attempts with 278 carries in 2011. He was able to score double digit touchdowns on the ground, but only two receiving. The AFC South is a joke as far as defenses, which means that Foster will be having a field day during divisional matchups. He’s a great pick anywhere in the top six overall selections, but keep in mind that Ben Tate isn’t going anywhere. Look for the two of them to share the same number of carries as last season, but Foster will be looking to stay healthy all season this time.

Adrian Peterson Why shouldn’t AP be in the top five running backs to draft? I understand he’s coming off an injury, but it wasn’t long ago that he was the unanimous overall draft pick in fantasy. Like Rice, Peterson is pretty much his team’s entire offense. I know that they have other players on the team, but no one that’s really going to be as big of a difference maker as he can be. Percy Harvin had to even play some running back at the tail end of 2011. Peterson has gradually progressed since his ACL surgery and has begun participating in contact drills. He will likely be held out of the final pre-season game in hopes of being ready for Week 1. Before he was injured, he scored 12 touchdowns in 12 games last season. I don’t know about you, but you’re not going to find a lot of backs that are reliable enough to get you a touchdown per week. He scored more touchdowns on the ground than Foster and just as many as Rice. All I’m saying is don’t be that owner that avoids considering Peterson at number seven overall versus Calvin Johnson. Even if he misses a game or two for recovery reasons, you just can’t pass up one of the best players in the league. You can easily find a substitute for a couple of weeks in the worst case scenario, that’s what the second half of the draft is for.

Darren McFadden This is the year. That’s right. This is the year that McFadden will stay healthy enough to be considered an elite and reliable fantasy running back. The Raiders have installed a new zone blocking offense that will focus solely on McFadden. Then again, when aren’t the Raiders bringing in a new offense on an annual basis, much less a new coaching staff. McFadden isn’t just a dual threat, he’s a triple threat. If you remember back to his Razorback days, he can run, catch, and throw. I’m not saying that it’s going to happen every five seconds, but the more ways to score the better. His stats aren’t going to impress you, but we know the type of impact that McFadden can make when he’s healthy. If he wasn’t so injury prone, he might crack the top three. He’s just that good. I truly believe that this will be the year that McFadden will stay healthy and can be one of the best players in fantasy. The Raiders don’t showcase an overbearing passing attack, so McFadden is going to be a focal point of the offense. You can probably get him a lot later than this ranking, just make sure that you’re not the person that passes him up if he falls to you.
Matt Forte He was one of the best options to start off the 2011 season. Unlike the typical trend with NFL stars on contract years, Forte doesn’t just play hard when he’s trying to get a better deal. His production did fall off in the second half of the season, but so did the Bears. He enters 2012 with a new contract and some new competition on offense. Brandon Marshall has reunited with Jay Cutler, which means that they’ll be looking to hook up a lot this season. Forte is quite the receiving option himself, as he led the team last season with 52 receptions. The stat that really throws you off about Forte’s 2011 season is the fact that he only scored three rushing touchdowns and one receiving. That’s not a typo. With that in mind, the Bears decided to bring in former Raider Michael Bush, who ended up being a great fantasy option when McFadden went down last season. Forte has those two factors going against him this year: Marshall taking away from his receiving totals and Bush taking away his goal line and third down opportunities. I’m not discrediting his fantasy value, but I’m just trying to make you aware of these issues when drafting him. Forte is still a great option to own in leagues and you can get him in the second to third round, depending on your league’s trend.
DeMarco Murray Much like Forte, Murray’s touchdown totals won’t impress you. The funny part is he actually got injured and still scored more than Forte. If Murray hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury, there’s no telling how good he could’ve been. He averages 5.5 yards per carry, he can be a dual threat, and Jason Garrett loves running the ball in Dallas. The Cowboys are hitting the panic button on the Tony Romo era, but that doesn’t mean that he’s going to be the offensive MVP this season. We all know that Jerry Jones is a promoter, but saying that Murray is the best running back the Cowboys have had since Emmitt Smith can be taken two ways: everyone since then has just been that bad or Murray is just that good. Coming off an injury landed Murray down the pre-season draft rankings from where he’ll actually finish this season. Even though Felix Jones is still on the team, it doesn’t mean that he’s going to cut into Murray’s rush totals. If you want value within the first five rounds, he’ll be there for the taking.
Jamaal Charles Another injured running back? I think this pretty much proves that there’s no getting around the risk when drafting an elite back. Charles only played in two games last season, but is more than capable of being a 1,000 rusher and catching 40 passes. The factor to be excited about in Kansas City is new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. All this guy has done the past two season is take overlooked running backs and turned them into fantasy studs. He did it last year in Miami with Reggie Bush and the season before with Peyton Hillis in Cleveland. Now Hillis reunites with Daboll in KC this season, but merely as a goal line back. Charles is still the feature-back in Daboll’s offense. After only 12 rush attempts last season, Charles is ready to explode. He’s had enough time to sit around and watch people like Jackie Battle stealing the spotlight. If you’re worried about Hillis stealing some carries from Charles, don’t be. If you look back to his time as the change of pace back with Larry “I don’t know what to do with my life” Johnson, Charles was quite productive. He’s hasn’t had a worthy complimentary back behind him since Johnson departed, so having Hillis and Daboll can only do wonders for him this season. He won’t be one of the first backs off the board, but you should view him like one when he falls to you in the third round.
Maurice Jones-Drew If this guy wasn’t such an idiot and try to cause all these hold out issues, he’d easily be a top three fantasy back. The problem is that new Jags Head Coach Mike Mularkey isn’t putting up with his problems. Whether it’s the hold out talks or the trade requests, Mularkey doesn’t second guess the idea of benching MJD the first week whether he shows up or not. If Jones-Drew can just get his act together and go have another stellar season so he can earn a new contract on a new team this next offseason, then he’s worth the price of a first or second round pick. The problem is that the issues continue, making his fantasy stock fall by the day. What kills you about MJD is that he’s not injury prone, he’s just being dumb. He led the league in carries last season with 343, accumulating 1600 yards rushing and eight touchdowns. The AFC South is a stomping ground for quality running backs against division defenses. The Jags did bring in Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon to give Blane Gabbert some actual weapons, but they won’t diminish MJD’s offensive production. Just keep in mind, when drafting him, that he has to get in camp first and earn his playing time. I could foresee him sitting out the first week or two and then being benched for at least one week after he actually shows up. Just consider these factors when you thinking about pulling the trigger on draft day.
Fred Jackson When you talk about over-looked backs, you have to mention this guy. Jackson was THE top running back in fantasy at the start of last season, but fell apart as did the Bills in the second half. Chan Gailey is all about running the ball, but Jackson failed to crack 200 carries in 2011. He is very capable of running that much and catching 40 passes. Jackson averages 5.5 yards per carry and 11.3 per reception. The issue this season could be with Gailey trying to get CJ Spiller going. The former first round draft pick hasn’t exactly lived up to the hype in his two seasons, but he was the Bills most productive back in the second half of last season. Jackson will be a dual threat for you, he plays in an explosive offense that only has one other elite option in Stevie Johnson, but the Bills are looking to increase Spiller’s role for 2012. Jackson isn’t the biggest name, but all fantasy owners care about is reliability and production. You’re going to get both of those qualities with him, just keep in mind that Spiller is lurking.
 Posted by at 11:37 am