Aug 282012
 

     We go from the deepest position to draft in fantasy, to the most important one.

     Running backs are a dime a dozen amongst fantasy leagues, often times causing you to reach for them in order to obtain any type of quality.

     Every year we see an unknown or overlooked back take the spotlight as soon as they have their first big game. Owners scrounge to put in a waiver claim for them and then it’s a gamble from there. A lot of backs that have never been feature backs either go two ways: they get burnt out and injured or they underachieve after their breakout.

      In 2011, the best waiver wire pickup for running backs was DeMarco Murray. He was a third round draft pick by Dallas, the sixth running back taken overall.

      When you look at the backs that went before him, none of them had relevant fantasy rookie seasons. All Murray did was break Cowboy and All-Time NFL rookie records for yards in a game, yards per attempt average, and was the face of Dallas’ offense. The only thing that kept Murray from being one of the top running backs in fantasy was when he suffered a fractured right ankle and a high ankle sprain against the Giants in Week 14.

      Is there another DeMarco Murray out there this season? There always is. What there isn’t, is an abundance of reliable options to draft.

     You would think with 32 teams that there would be enough options to go around for every team to get at least two quality runners, but that is far from the case on an annual basis.

     When you’re digging for sleepers in the middle rounds of your draft, you’ll actually find that the best options go undrafted.

     So how do you find them?

     You have to look for unstable backfields. Teams that don’t have that no-brainer feature back and have either brought in a highly regarded free agent or drafted a wishful savior.

      Last year Murray started the season as the third string back, behind Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, and was just waiting for the right opportunity to take over.

      This year, you might want to look at teams that have options that are either breaking down towards the tail end of their career or ones that just haven’t panned out. Let’s be honest, the NFC West is full of those.

      It’s crazy to think that Steven Jackson was actually once the unanimous overall recommended option to draft. Since then, he hasn’t exactly given owners a reason to want to trust him.

      Beanie Wells has done what just about every other Jim Tressel Buckeye product has done, underachieve tremendously in the NFL.

      If you remember back to last year, the Cardinals selected former Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams. He suffered a ruptured patella tendon during a pre-season game against the Packers and was done for the year. Williams is the ideal candidate for this year’s fantasy running back breakout. If you look at the factors: Wells isn’t the dominant back he was drafted to be, Williams is a dual-threat, the Cardinals offense isn’t exactly thriving these days, and Ken Whisenhunt loves to run the ball.

     Unfortunately all of those factors doesn’t put Ryan Williams into the top 10 running backs that you must draft NOW, but that will change as the season goes a long.

      Let’s take a look at the reliable rushers that you need to go after in your draft early and often…

Ray Rice He was my top ranked option at running back last season and he remains at that spot this season. Trust me, I got a lot of raised eyebrows for that call last season, but the owners who followed through quickly agreed in Week 1. Rice is in the perfect offense for a fantasy running back: The Ravens use the run to set up the pass, Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron loves running the ball, Rice is a dual threat, and Joe Flacco isn’t exactly elite. Just to give you an idea of how weak Baltimore’s passing attack is, Rice led the team with 76 receptions in 2011. He enters this season with no competition to share or take carries away from him, especially with two rookies behind him. The offense essentially runs through him, with explains ranking second in the NFL last season with 291 total carries. Rice averages 4.7 yards per carry and can be the most reliable back in the league. You could go a lot of different directions at running back in the first six picks, but you can hardly find anyone else that essentially is his entire team’s offense.

LeSean McCoy ‘Ol Shady has been one of the best running backs to own in fantasy ever since his second NFL season. He would be a candidate for the overall fantasy back if it wasn’t for the other weapons in the Eagles offense and the fact that his quarterback likes to do some running himself. McCoy slightly trailed Foster for rush attempts last season with 273, but he did lead all running backs in rushing touchdowns with 17. The only person that beat him out was Cam Newton. McCoy averages close to five yards per carry and over six per reception, making him one of the elite dual threats in the league. You can expect the Eagles to hand the ball off a little more this season with the idea of trying to protect Vick a lot more. He’s been taking some shots early into this pre-season and Andy Reid will encourage Vick to not scramble as much this year. McCoy is a dual threat in an explosive offense, there will be more emphasis on the running game, he’s an elite scorer, and can turn any play into a big one. There’s no reason he should fall out of the top six picks in your draft.

Arian Foster He is the favorite by most fantasy experts to be this year’s overall pick in drafts, but he doesn’t have the importance in Houston that Rice has in Baltimore. Foster bounced back nicely last season, when healthy, and will look to take it to another level this season. Another reason why Foster isn’t the unanimous overall selection, even at his position, is the fact that there is a very viable back right behind him on the depth chart in Ben Tate. During Foster’s absence early into 2011, Tate showed owners why he was so highly coveted coming out of Auburn. Tate also went through his injury woes and a waiting period, but anyone that started him during the first three weeks benefited nicely. Foster is a dual threat back that ranked in the top of the league in rush attempts with 278 carries in 2011. He was able to score double digit touchdowns on the ground, but only two receiving. The AFC South is a joke as far as defenses, which means that Foster will be having a field day during divisional matchups. He’s a great pick anywhere in the top six overall selections, but keep in mind that Ben Tate isn’t going anywhere. Look for the two of them to share the same number of carries as last season, but Foster will be looking to stay healthy all season this time.

Adrian Peterson Why shouldn’t AP be in the top five running backs to draft? I understand he’s coming off an injury, but it wasn’t long ago that he was the unanimous overall draft pick in fantasy. Like Rice, Peterson is pretty much his team’s entire offense. I know that they have other players on the team, but no one that’s really going to be as big of a difference maker as he can be. Percy Harvin had to even play some running back at the tail end of 2011. Peterson has gradually progressed since his ACL surgery and has begun participating in contact drills. He will likely be held out of the final pre-season game in hopes of being ready for Week 1. Before he was injured, he scored 12 touchdowns in 12 games last season. I don’t know about you, but you’re not going to find a lot of backs that are reliable enough to get you a touchdown per week. He scored more touchdowns on the ground than Foster and just as many as Rice. All I’m saying is don’t be that owner that avoids considering Peterson at number seven overall versus Calvin Johnson. Even if he misses a game or two for recovery reasons, you just can’t pass up one of the best players in the league. You can easily find a substitute for a couple of weeks in the worst case scenario, that’s what the second half of the draft is for.

Darren McFadden This is the year. That’s right. This is the year that McFadden will stay healthy enough to be considered an elite and reliable fantasy running back. The Raiders have installed a new zone blocking offense that will focus solely on McFadden. Then again, when aren’t the Raiders bringing in a new offense on an annual basis, much less a new coaching staff. McFadden isn’t just a dual threat, he’s a triple threat. If you remember back to his Razorback days, he can run, catch, and throw. I’m not saying that it’s going to happen every five seconds, but the more ways to score the better. His stats aren’t going to impress you, but we know the type of impact that McFadden can make when he’s healthy. If he wasn’t so injury prone, he might crack the top three. He’s just that good. I truly believe that this will be the year that McFadden will stay healthy and can be one of the best players in fantasy. The Raiders don’t showcase an overbearing passing attack, so McFadden is going to be a focal point of the offense. You can probably get him a lot later than this ranking, just make sure that you’re not the person that passes him up if he falls to you.
Matt Forte He was one of the best options to start off the 2011 season. Unlike the typical trend with NFL stars on contract years, Forte doesn’t just play hard when he’s trying to get a better deal. His production did fall off in the second half of the season, but so did the Bears. He enters 2012 with a new contract and some new competition on offense. Brandon Marshall has reunited with Jay Cutler, which means that they’ll be looking to hook up a lot this season. Forte is quite the receiving option himself, as he led the team last season with 52 receptions. The stat that really throws you off about Forte’s 2011 season is the fact that he only scored three rushing touchdowns and one receiving. That’s not a typo. With that in mind, the Bears decided to bring in former Raider Michael Bush, who ended up being a great fantasy option when McFadden went down last season. Forte has those two factors going against him this year: Marshall taking away from his receiving totals and Bush taking away his goal line and third down opportunities. I’m not discrediting his fantasy value, but I’m just trying to make you aware of these issues when drafting him. Forte is still a great option to own in leagues and you can get him in the second to third round, depending on your league’s trend.
DeMarco Murray Much like Forte, Murray’s touchdown totals won’t impress you. The funny part is he actually got injured and still scored more than Forte. If Murray hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury, there’s no telling how good he could’ve been. He averages 5.5 yards per carry, he can be a dual threat, and Jason Garrett loves running the ball in Dallas. The Cowboys are hitting the panic button on the Tony Romo era, but that doesn’t mean that he’s going to be the offensive MVP this season. We all know that Jerry Jones is a promoter, but saying that Murray is the best running back the Cowboys have had since Emmitt Smith can be taken two ways: everyone since then has just been that bad or Murray is just that good. Coming off an injury landed Murray down the pre-season draft rankings from where he’ll actually finish this season. Even though Felix Jones is still on the team, it doesn’t mean that he’s going to cut into Murray’s rush totals. If you want value within the first five rounds, he’ll be there for the taking.
Jamaal Charles Another injured running back? I think this pretty much proves that there’s no getting around the risk when drafting an elite back. Charles only played in two games last season, but is more than capable of being a 1,000 rusher and catching 40 passes. The factor to be excited about in Kansas City is new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. All this guy has done the past two season is take overlooked running backs and turned them into fantasy studs. He did it last year in Miami with Reggie Bush and the season before with Peyton Hillis in Cleveland. Now Hillis reunites with Daboll in KC this season, but merely as a goal line back. Charles is still the feature-back in Daboll’s offense. After only 12 rush attempts last season, Charles is ready to explode. He’s had enough time to sit around and watch people like Jackie Battle stealing the spotlight. If you’re worried about Hillis stealing some carries from Charles, don’t be. If you look back to his time as the change of pace back with Larry “I don’t know what to do with my life” Johnson, Charles was quite productive. He’s hasn’t had a worthy complimentary back behind him since Johnson departed, so having Hillis and Daboll can only do wonders for him this season. He won’t be one of the first backs off the board, but you should view him like one when he falls to you in the third round.
Maurice Jones-Drew If this guy wasn’t such an idiot and try to cause all these hold out issues, he’d easily be a top three fantasy back. The problem is that new Jags Head Coach Mike Mularkey isn’t putting up with his problems. Whether it’s the hold out talks or the trade requests, Mularkey doesn’t second guess the idea of benching MJD the first week whether he shows up or not. If Jones-Drew can just get his act together and go have another stellar season so he can earn a new contract on a new team this next offseason, then he’s worth the price of a first or second round pick. The problem is that the issues continue, making his fantasy stock fall by the day. What kills you about MJD is that he’s not injury prone, he’s just being dumb. He led the league in carries last season with 343, accumulating 1600 yards rushing and eight touchdowns. The AFC South is a stomping ground for quality running backs against division defenses. The Jags did bring in Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon to give Blane Gabbert some actual weapons, but they won’t diminish MJD’s offensive production. Just keep in mind, when drafting him, that he has to get in camp first and earn his playing time. I could foresee him sitting out the first week or two and then being benched for at least one week after he actually shows up. Just consider these factors when you thinking about pulling the trigger on draft day.
Fred Jackson When you talk about over-looked backs, you have to mention this guy. Jackson was THE top running back in fantasy at the start of last season, but fell apart as did the Bills in the second half. Chan Gailey is all about running the ball, but Jackson failed to crack 200 carries in 2011. He is very capable of running that much and catching 40 passes. Jackson averages 5.5 yards per carry and 11.3 per reception. The issue this season could be with Gailey trying to get CJ Spiller going. The former first round draft pick hasn’t exactly lived up to the hype in his two seasons, but he was the Bills most productive back in the second half of last season. Jackson will be a dual threat for you, he plays in an explosive offense that only has one other elite option in Stevie Johnson, but the Bills are looking to increase Spiller’s role for 2012. Jackson isn’t the biggest name, but all fantasy owners care about is reliability and production. You’re going to get both of those qualities with him, just keep in mind that Spiller is lurking.
 Posted by at 11:37 am
Aug 272012
 

    It’s almost September and that means that it’s time to have your fantasy football draft.

    Every year you say to yourself that you’re going to have a different draft strategy, after missing your league’s playoffs last year, but you just find yourself falling into your old habits. No more. This is the year that you’re going to be thinking differently.

    I’m not talking about reinventing the wheel, just reinventing the way you think of fantasy sports.

    When drafting your team, you need to focus on what I like to call S.T.U.D.s (Someone That U Don’t Have To Worry About)

    What do I mean by that? Simply put, they are players that you EXPECT to perform, rather than HOPE they perform. They are people that you look forward to playing because there’s no telling how big of a day that they could have. Every pick, no matter if it’s the first or last in your draft, needs to be focused around these ideals. You can leave a spot or two for the expendable rotating door of free agents, but everyone else should be someone that you would want to play.

    If you can lock up a position, to where you would never think of replacing them, why not do it?

    I don’t believe in reaches in drafts, as long as they solidify a position.You just never know what your peers are thinking. They may laugh at you for taking that person, but they were probably just pissed that they weren’t able to get them. Don’t worry, they’ll be calling you for trades around Week 2.

    The quarterback position is one of the most sought after in fantasy, but it’s not the one that you need to hit the panic button over if you don’t get an elite option.

    With 30 percent of the league starting quarterbacks with merely two years or less experience to their name, the fantasy quarterback pool has become less of a concern.

    Those who drafted Cam Newton last season were probably the laughing stock of their league news in the post-draft write up, but Newton was also the most added player after Week 1.

    Many owners went after the obvious names in last season’s drafts, but the late rounders like Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton proved to be some of the best options as the season progressed.

    Will that be the same case this year with the new batch of rookies? Possibly, but don’t hold your breath.

    Unless you have one of the top six picks in your draft, you don’t need to be thinking about a quarterback until at least the second round.

     You might not agree with that theory, until you’re the guy scrounging for runnings backs like Donald Brown by the fifth round.

     The glory of the quarterback position being so deep is that you only need one starter, and typically don’t think of drafting a backup until late or at all. There’s 32 starters in the NFL and fantasy leagues typically run around eight to 12 members. Odds are you’ll be able to get one of these top 10 options, some cheaper than others.

      You may be trigger happy on draft day, but just think about where that got you last year.

      Let’s take a look at the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks that can make an impact on your team this season…

Aaron Rodgers-What? Brees broke all those records and he still doesn’t make it into the number one spot? Yes. When you’re analyzing any player, you have to base their value on how important they are to their offense. Let’s be honest, no one’s winning a league rushing title in Green Bay these days. They had 12 rushing touchdowns all last season, 3 of them coming from Rodgers. He has plenty of weapons to throw to, they’re a pass first team, the NFC North defenses aren’t exactly turning heads nowadays, and you can expect around least three touchdowns from Rodgers on a weekly basis. If Green Bay actually went out of their way to run the ball, he might be a spot or two down on the list, but that’s not the case. The fact that the Packers offense is essentially one dimensional and Rodgers is the focal point makes him the best to own. If you have one of the top six picks, Rodgers should be your first option at quarterback.

Tom Brady Still no Brees? New England is another team that seldomly runs the football. They even let their best running back walk this offseason in BenJarvus Green-Ellis. All he did was never fumble. There’s no secret that Brady has some of the best weapons in fantasy with Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and now Brandon Lloyd. The biggest x-factor to Brady’s success this season will be offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. We all know how he loves to throw the ball at least 30+ times a game, so that only adds to Brady’s value. If they’re in the red zone, you won’t have to worry about them trying to pound the ball in with Green-Ellis gone. Another factor to New England’s offense is the matter that they have to outscore opponents, due to their lackluster defense. You can expect Brady to put up big numbers on a weekly basis and is typically one of the best right out of the gate. When you’re looking for reliable producers, you can’t go wrong with the pass-happy Patriots’ leader.

Drew Brees There he is. He broke all of those records last season, held out to get a big contract, but will be without Sean Payton this year. To add to the problem, the Saints have a stable of running backs that have to either be used or cut. With the likes of Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Darren Sproles amongst others, the Saints might be looking to run the ball more this season. It’s not even that big of a deal that Robert Meachem decided to go to San Diego in the offseason, because Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston have it pretty much taken care of. Don’t get me wrong, Brees will still throw for a ton of yards and touchdowns, but New Orleans will be looking to balance out the offense this season with the revolving door of head coaches. Keep in mind that the NFC South has a trend of teams going from worst to first based on the previous season rankings. I’m not saying that the Saints are going to fall apart, but don’t expect another record breaking year from Brees like last season. If you have one of the first six picks, there’s nothing wrong with selecting Brees to lock up your quarterback spot.

Peyton Manning He’s back in the league and back in the fantasy picture. Once regarded as the top fantasy option, Peyton has steadily downgraded due to the running back trend in fantasy and the emergence of the new wave of quarterbacks. Can he still be that guy that led your team on a weekly basis when he was with the Colts? Why not. Just because he’s playing outdoors doesn’t have anything to do with that he can bring to your team. His weapons aren’t as great as the previous three, but he does play in a somewhat weaker division. The AFC West is such a toss up on an annual basis nowadays and the Broncos have very high expectations coming into this season. The great thing about Manning this year is the fact that his value has dropped him to the second round or even further. He has the stigma attached to him with the idea that he’ll be knocked out after one good tackle, but you have to believe that he wouldn’t come back in that fragile of a state. The great thing about John Fox’s staff is the fact that they taylor the offense to the Quarterback. You can expect a lot of what we saw in Indy with Peyton, but not with the caliber of receivers he had there.  You might want to hold off until the second round to take Manning, but don’t disregard him as one of the most reliable options to own this season.

Cam Newton He was one of the biggest steals in fantasy football last season, but this year the secret’s out. Newton has taken over as the best dual-threat quarterback to own in leagues, since Michael Vick’s style of play has led to numerous injuries these past three seasons. Newton doesn’t have a lot of quality weapons past Steve Smith, but he’s a weapon by himself. You can’t really expect that he’ll have the same type of season as last year because teams will be better prepared for him, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t be elite again. When you focus on players that mean the most to their offenses, you can’t disregard how much of the Panthers offense revolves on Newton’s play. Defenses will attempt to make him pass more this season, but many will find out that it’ll just be a matter of trying to slow him down. You can get Newton at a discount this year, not as big as last year, but at least until the third or fourth round depending on your league’s trend.

Matthew Stafford He went from one of the biggest injury concerns to one of the elite fantasy quarterback options in 2011. You shouldn’t view Stafford’s ranking as a matter of losing stock, but rather just how deep the quarterback pool is this year. He has the best receiver in the league to throw to, but Calvin Johnson is sporting the Madden Curse. Past Johnson, you’re looking at Brandon Pettigrew being his best target. The Lions backfield just can’t stay healthy this pre-season, which only means that Stafford will be forced to do more for the offense early in the season. Jahvid Best could return after the first six weeks, which gives Stafford enough time to tear it up for owners. Just keep in mind that things could get ugly if Johnson follows suit like his Madden cover predecessors, leaving Stafford as a struggling option. After you’ve locked up a solid running back and one solid receiver, look for Stafford to still be hanging around on the draft board in the third round.

Michael Vick Remember back when Michael Vick was one of the most sought after players in fantasy? That was back when he was wearing another uniform. Since joining the Eagles, Vick has become more and more of a injury liability. You just can’t afford to invest so much into Vick nowadays with such a high risk attached to his profile. He’s already taken some pretty brutal shots in pre-season that has owners envisioning being constantly on pins and needles. You don’t want to stress over whether or not Vick will stay in games on a weekly basis, so that is why you should wait until the middle of your draft to consider him. Beyond the worries, Vick has all the weapons and talent to be a difference maker on your team. He can still contribute on the ground, but you can expect Vick to hand the ball off more to LeSean McCoy this season. Michael Vick is the biggest risk/reward selection at the quarterback position, you just have to ask yourself if you’re willing to gamble.

Phillip Rivers He loses Vincent Jackson, but gets Robert Meachem. Yeah, I’m not that excited either. Don’t get me wrong, Meachem’s a great person, but he’s not the difference maker that Jackson is. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers just couldn’t seem to get it right in 2011, in the midst of multiple injuries and poor play. Ryan Matthews is in jeopardy of missing up to at least the first three games of the season, leaving Ronnie Brown to tote the rock. We all know how great of an offensive coordinator Norv Turner is, but as a Head Coach not so much. Rivers and Turner are both on the hot seat this year, which is why they will do whatever it takes to get back to being a wild card contender. Antonio Gates is healthy this season and will once again be the most reliable target for Rivers. You can wait a very long time in drafts to get Rivers, as he isn’t pre-ranked very high. He’s going to throw for a lot of yards, but doesn’t have the touchdown-to-interception ratio that is going to make him an elite option. The AFC West is always a toss up for the level of competition on an annual basis, the Chargers are hitting the panic button on the Norv Turner era, and Rivers is going to be the most valuable player for San Diego in the first half of the season. If you plan on waiting to take a QB, Rivers will be sitting there for you in the middle to late rounds.

Jay Cutler This isn’t the Mike Martz offense, but Jay Cutler is re-united with his favorite target Brandon Marshall. If there’s one thing about this duo is that they always seem to play harder together. Cutler has had experiments for top targets ever since he was traded to Chicago and Marshall has never had as level of quarterback as Cutler since his departure from Denver either. The Bears loaded up with offensive weapons this offseason, building up for a great season from Cutler. He’s going to throw for a lot of yards and now a lot of touchdowns with Marshall in town. The only thing that could take away from Cutler’s value is the fact that they have two quality running backs in Matt Forte and Michael Bush. If they’re within ten yards from the end zone, don’t expect the Bears to throw the ball. Cutler sits way down on pre-season rankings, so he can be a viable option to take in the late rounds.

Eli Manning I’ve never been a big Eli fan when it comes to fantasy, but you have to just look at the impact that he makes on a weekly basis with his gun slinger style of play. He has great receivers in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, but he doesn’t have a quality tight end with so many injuries this offseason. Martellus Bennett isn’t exactly a sleeper in the making. If you saw the old Cowboys Hard Knocks special, the guy couldn’t even grasp the playbook. No matter how much attention defenses focus towards Cruz this season, that’s only great news for Hakeem Nicks. The Giants running back core is slightly injury prone, which will cause Manning to throw it more this season. Rookie running back David Wilson is one of my sleepers going into this season, but his value won’t show up until around Week 6. Manning likes to go deep on multiple occasions, which can translate to a lot of touchdowns but just as many interceptions. Just be mindful that he is as big of a risk/reward option as Vick, only without the injury prone tag to his name. Manning’s ranked a lot higher than you should take him, so wait until the later rounds to take a flier on him.

 Posted by at 5:50 pm