Sep 192012
 

     Can running backs please stop going down with injuries?

     Just when you thought it was safe to draft reliable tailbacks, they create a major gap in your lineup just as the season gets underway.

      We knew that it was going to be a while before Ryan Matthews, Mikel Leshoure, and Rashard Mendenhall were to return, going into fantasy drafts, but they can’t return quick enough in the midst of all of these injuries.

      Bills running back Fred Jackson was the first major name to go down, allowing CJ Spiller to become the top running back in fantasy. How long can he keep this up? Probably as much as Jackson did last season, up until Week 5. At that point, defenses will key in on how to stop him.

      Matt Forte went down with what was initially reported to be a high ankle sprain last Thursday against the Packers, but Lovie Smith assured the media that it was an ankle injury. Forte is the highest valued tailback to go down thus far this season, ranking as a second round pick in fantasy drafts, but that’s why you have to learn to draft key backups in the late rounds.

      We saw how Michael Bush handled the load of being a feature back last season when Darren McFadden went down with his annual injury, so owners should feel pretty good about starting him going forward. He’s not just a bruiser, as Bush can be a threat catching the ball out of the backfield as well.

      The major problem becomes how to replace these key players.

      If there’s one thing to learn from this trend of injuries, is that you have to value your bench players as much as your starters. Anyone that is on your team has to be valued as a viable starter. You should have problems deciding on who to start on game day every week.

      The bench should essentially be used for players that are injured, serving temporary suspensions, or viable options that are judged based on their weekly matchups.

       Let’s take a look at the players that are actually in your waivers that can help you out in the midst of these tough injuries…

Andre Brown (18% owned) Ahmad Bradshaw went down with an injury? Who saw that coming? We knew that this was going to happen, just didn’t realize it was going to be so soon. Rookie first rounder David Wilson seemed like a great value pick late in drafts, until he fumbled his first NFL carry. The media, the coaches, and fantasy owners haven’t let him live it down since. It might be taken a little too far, that’s why I believe that something else is going on in that Giants locker room that’s preventing him from getting touches. Wilson will eventually take over as the feature back, but owners have Andre Brown until then. Who? He’s a third year player out of NC State that wasn’t the biggest name, even in college. He’s already been with six NFL franchises since being drafted by the Broncos in the fourth round of the 2009 draft. Any time you rush for 71 yards off of 13 carries, fantasy owners learn your name quickly. It’s tough times for fantasy owners who have lost their key running backs, but Brown is a solid rental for the time being. That has to be the case as Brown has already been added in 18% of leagues in the first eligible pickup day. There’s no reason to think that David Wilson won’t cut into his carries eventually, but he should be the feature back for this Thursday night matchup against Carolina. The Panthers have given up 140 rushing yards per game this season, against the likes of Doug Martin and the Saints’ revolving backfield. I’m not knocking the ability of any of those backs, but that it should demonstrate that it doesn’t matter who’s running the ball against them. The Giants are dinged up in multiple areas on offense, especially at wide receiver, which is why I believe that Brown will get a solid amount of carries this week. Manning did air it out a lot last week, but the Giants will look to be more balanced this week. The fact that Brown was so productive while Manning almost broke a franchise passing record should give you even more confidence in playing Brown. If he’s available in your league, Andre Brown might be one of the best pickups to get on your team now, regardless of need. It doesn’t hurt to have trade bait for your desperate peers either.

Mikel Leshoure (25% owned) Is there really that big of a need of help in the Lions backfield with Kevin Smith exceeding expectations? When you’re only rushing for 50-60 yards per game, the answer is obvious. Jim Schwartz has already declared that Leshoure will get plenty of snaps immediately. The former Illini running back suffered a season-ending injury last pre-season, so Detroit has another young player with plenty of fresh legs to pound the rock. Leshoure averaged six yards per carry in college, but wasn’t much of a dual threat. He’s coming off of a three game suspension, on top of missing last season with an injury, so Leshoure will be looking to make an instant impact in his NFL debut. He’s valued as a number two running back option, but could end up being more productive.

Dennis Pitta (30% owned) He’s not the biggest name out there, but that doesn’t matter in fantasy as long as you’re productive. Pitta has not only become Joe Flacco’s favorite target, but he’s finally established himself as the feature tight end between him and Ed Dickson. He’s a great red zone target, in addition to stretching the field. Pitta already has 15 catches and one touchdown on the season, so he should be viewed as a viable option to replace the injured Aaron Hernandez for owners. Hernandez is out for six weeks, but you won’t need to lose sleep with the type of production that Pitta is displaying lately. I’m not discarding Hernandez, but at least Pitta is healthy and is the top target on his team. The former BYU Cougar is a great add for owners, who are either rotating tight end options or looking to upgrade to a solidified starter.

WATCHLIST PLAYERS

Daryl Richardson (3% owned) He’s another unknown name for fantasy owners, originally starting the season as the third running back on the Rams depth chart. We all know that Jeff Fisher wants to establish discipline on his team and he did so with Steven Jackson last week. All the guy did was spike the ball. That’s more ridiculous than half of the mistakes that these replacement refs make. If you own Jackson, you were probably frustrated at his benching. Fisher tried to pass it off as an apparent “groin injury”, but we know it was all about being on a disciplinary power trip. Jackson was positive about the MRI he had on Monday, which leaves owners to wondering if he’s going to start Sunday against the Bears. Chicago’s not the easiest team to run on, which is why this is a situation to watch. I would expect that Fisher will look to utilize both Jackson and Richardson going forward, due to his production last week. Richardson should be on your watchlist, due to the high level of running back injuries, especially when dealing with the annually-injured Steven Jackson. He has the ability to be a great fantasy contributor, but hold off on starting him this week regardless of Jackson’s status.

STORYLINES TO FOLLOW THIS WEEK

-Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall won’t return until Week 5

-Chargers RB Ryan Matthews to return from clavicle injury this week against ATL

-Bears RB Matt Forte’s suffered an ankle injury according to Love Smith, not a high ankle sprain

-Will Rams RB Steven Jackson be healthy enough to start Sunday against the Bears or is it a disciplinary issue

-Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw ruled out for Thursday’s game vs CAR with neck injury, but could be ready for Week 4

-How long until Giants rookie RB David Wilson gets another chance to play

-Patriots Tight End Aaron Hernandez reportedly out for six weeks with a low ankle sprain

-Lions RB Mikel Leshoure makes his NFL debut after being out all of 2011 and suspended for the first 3 games of this season

-Could Bills RB CJ Spiller’s recent production keep Fred Jackson out longer than expected with a lack of urgency?

 Posted by at 12:51 pm
Sep 112012
 

    Week one is in the books, leaving you either really happy or really disappointed in your team.

    It’s never a good idea to doubt your team just after one week, but rather build upon it.

    If there’s one consistent pattern in fantasy sports, it’s that your season doesn’t have to be decided based on your draft results.

    As a fantasy owner, you should constantly be thinking like a pro team general manager. Whether you’re searching the waiver wire for gems or burning up the phone lines to get a deal done, you have to constantly think two steps ahead at all times.

    A lot of owners will look to jump all over the hot names from opening weekend, most of the time overspending in budget leagues, but there are very few players that will be worth keeping on your roster.

    Entering Week 2, you have to analyze whether or not your targeted free agent is going to be a quick fix or a permanent contributor.

    Just continue to use the mindset of judging players based on whether you expect them to perform versus you thinking that they could do well.

    Let’s take a look at the players that you need to add to your team today…

Alfred Morris (18% owned) The starting running back for Mike Shanahan will forever be a must-own. He tried to keep it a secret up until game time, but we were able to get to news out about this former Florida Atlantic standout. Morris rushed 28 times for 96 yards and two touchdowns in his debut against the Saints. We all saw how he made a name for himself during the pre-season, so the fact that his debut was in a dome shouldn’t be a factor against his ability. You’d like to see him be more of a dual threat, but that will come with time. Morris can be a solid number two running back option for your team, so cash in while he’s still available.

Stephen Hill (7% owned) He has to be one of the most underrated pickups available in waivers today. Hill continued the trend of successful Georgia Tech receivers transitioning to the NFL, looking to make an impact in the Jets passing attack. He has the size and speed to stretch the field, he’s a great red zone target, and he won’t command as much attention as Santonio Holmes and Dustin Keller for a while. Everyone knocks Mark Sanchez’s ability as an elite fantasy quarterback, but he’s never had an immense amount of elite targets. Hill can be a great flex option for you, even as a number two receiver. It’s best to view him as a flex option for now, just to temper your weekly expectations, but he has the upside to be a solid weekly contributor.

Kyle Rudolph (9% owned) Name all of the quality receiving targets in Minnesota not named Percy Harvin…that’s what I thought. Even though he only caught five passes against the Jaguars, there weren’t that many tight end options that even caught that many. Christian Ponder will look to take a lot of pressure off of Adrian Peterson on offense and Rudolph will soon become one of his safety nets. He was undervalued coming out of Notre Dame, but that shouldn’t keep you from considering him. If you weren’t able to get a quality tight end in the draft, you might want to consider the up-and-coming Rudolph.

WATCHLIST PLAYER

Alshon Jeffery (11% owned) Can we expect the Bears to score 41 points every week? Probably not. When you have Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, and Michael Bush to utilize on offense, there doesn’t leave much room for others. The flip side to that is when defenses start to focus in on those three, then more opportunities begin to open up for the other players on the field. Alshon Jeffery is talented enough to one day be a number one target, but he’ll enjoy benefiting from playing opposite of Marshall.  Even though he only caught three passes against the Colts, they went for 80 yards and a touchdown. He had a productive day, fantasy wise, but he has a ways to go before becoming a must-start. Jeffery has the upside to be a solid fantasy contributor, but let’s not forget that he was playing against the Colts. This week’s matchup against the Packers will give a better view on how effective he can be in this offense, so try not to get trigger happy with this pickup just yet.

STORYLINES TO FOLLOW THIS WEEK

-Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch will not be suspended for offseason DUI

-Titans WR Kenny Britt returns from suspension

-Lions WR Titus Young could be held out of this week’s game for disciplinary reasons

-Packers WR Greg Jennings could sit out Thursday’s game vs Bears

-Chargers RB Ryan Matthews set to return this week

For all of the latest on Fantasy Football news, follow Tim Finnigan @TFinnWNSP & @WNSPSportsRadio

 Posted by at 4:51 pm
Sep 062012
 

     It’s only the first game of the Fantasy Football season, but owners have already started jumping on the hottest no-name player to make an instant impact.

     Kevin Ogletree had the game of his life last night against the Giants, catching eight passes for 114 yards and two scores.

     Did you know who Kevin Ogletree was before last night? The answer is obvious.

     Those two scores weren’t just crucial for this game, they were the first touchdowns of his NFL career. Ogletree is only seven catches away from his career, season high of 15.

     Now, can we really be surprised by his production? I say no.

     Last season, Laurent Robinson made a huge impact for the Cowboys and fantasy owners. He played in the slot in Dallas’ offense, on his way to having a career year. The difference between the two is that Robinson was a slightly more polished player that was brought in through free agency for depth.

     Robinson led the Cowboys with 11 touchdowns, through 54 receptions and 858 yards. His 2011 campaign landed him a nice contract with the Jaguars this offseason. Hey, if they’re willing to overpay, why not?

     The question this season is if Kevin Ogletree can be this year’s Laurent Robinson in Fantasy?

     There’s no reason to think that he can’t be.

     The Cowboys’ slot receiver is trending to be almost as coveted as the starting running back for the Redskins. The difference is, you’ll actually know who is playing in the slot in Dallas. You can never tell who Mike Shannahan will start on a weekly basis, unless it’s a young Clinton Portis during his Denver days.

     Why is the Dallas third receiver so valuable?

     You have to look at the fact that they have two Pro Bowl-caliber players on the outsides, thus distracting defenses from the check down and middle routes.

      It’s a position that will be great for PPR leagues, but might not be a sure thing on a weekly basis.

      Robinson only had three, 100 yard games in 2011, but did have eight games of four or more receptions. Taking into account that he didn’t play in the Cowboys’ first two games last season, Ogletree could project to have an even better season than Robinson.

      You can best believe that Seattle will look to pay a little extra attention to Ogletree in next week’s matchup, but that won’t keep him from being productive.

      If you’re not happy with your draft and really need some help at the WR or FLEX positions, Ogletree is a quality pickup at this point. I would wait to see who else breaks out this Sunday before making any moves. The worst thing you can do is use up all of your transactions too early into the season, if your in a league that has a set number. If that’s not the case, and you’ve got room to spare, by all means pick him up now.

 Posted by at 8:50 am