Oct 162012
 

   It’s a game of patience and faith if you want to be successful in life…and in fantasy football.

   By now, you should have done enough surgery to your drafted team that you’re either firing on all cylinders or the doormat of your league.

   I’m not saying your season’s over, but it’s time to dig deep if you’re going to make a playoff run.

   Believe it or not, it’s really best to start the season off bad.

   Hear me out. If you start off the season bad, then you’ll have a better spot in the waiver order.

   The waivers can be one of the best ways to improve your team and get those hidden gems that turn into solid contributors.

   Every fantasy league that I’ve ever played in, I have the same pattern: draft for the long term, start off slow, build up through waivers and trades, then finish strong in the second half.

   Why does that work?

   Primarily because no one else in your league is thinking like that. They would much rather just ride out the storm with the team that they drafted from day one.

   Unless you’re agressive in waivers and on the trade block, you’re never going to succeed in fantasy sports.

   The watchlist is one of the more underutilized features of the waivers for fantasy owners.

   All you have to do is simply tag people that you think could do well. Surprisingly, owners don’t utilize it because they’d rather just go off of whoever is at the top of the list by default.

   You, on the other hand, should be keeping a watchful eye on players that you would want to add if they opportunity presented itself.

   If your watchlist is prestigious, then you’ll be in better shape when it comes time to trade a big name player. If someone in your league comes to you with a big trade, you’ll have your watchlist candidates ready to be the next in line.

   Remember this rule: never have a player on your team that you wouldn’t consider playing on a regular basis, and leave your watchlist for the maybes with potential.

   If you are a Peyton Manning owner, you probably won your matchup last weeks based on his Monday Night Football performance. Unfortunately he’s on a bye week this week and you need to find a viable replacement.

   Let’s take a look at the players that could step up for you this week…

Felix Jones (50% owned) Even though he’s already owned in fifty percent of leagues, Jones is really just a rental for this week if you’re hurting at running back. DeMarco Murray is only going to be out for one week, so you can’t expect 18 carries, 92 yards, and a score kind of performances from him beyond this week. Now, it was impressive that he did that against the Raves, which could lead to Dallas moving towards more of a two-back show going forward. Since Murray will be eased back into the lineup, Jones’ value could last for a week and a half. They’ll be on the road again this week, against Carolina, so Jones should be a decent enough play to be looked at as a number two running back option.

Christian Ponder (36% owned) If you’re not impressed with this guy by now, something’s wrong with you. Ponder was a controversial pick two seasons ago, solely based on how high he went. Scouts weren’t doubting his talent, but it took a little while for him to get comfortable at the NFL level. He’s a dual threat, which is great by fantasy standards, allowing him to bring a strong level of reliability if you need to pick up a option for your quarterback’s bye week. If you don’t have one of the elite options already, you could actually seriously consider him as your quarterback going forward.  Four of his six games this season, he’s thrown for over 240 yards, along with two touchdowns in four of those games. He  has thrown two interceptions each of his last two games, but was still able to post solid fantasy numbers. He returns home to take on a Cardinals unit that is trying to rekindle their early season magic on defense. The Vikings offense is starting to come together nicely, which is why you need to employ Ponder as your Manning BYE week substitute.

Randall Cobb (36% owned) Greg Jennings is still recovering from his recent injury, making room for people like James Jones and Randall Cobb. Now we all know Cobb for his elite speed and return skills, but in the last three weeks he’s been quite effective in catching   14 passes and scoring once. Cobb has the ability to gain great yardage after the catch, which is why you should want him in this week’s matchup against the Rams. James Jones and Jordy Nelson will be busy tying Janoris Jenkins and the Rams secondary, leaving plenty of opportunity for Cobb to shine. The secret’s out on James Jones after scoring two touchdowns each of the last three weeks, so now it’s time to get on the Randall Cobb bandwagon. If you need a spark at the flex option, employ Cobb.

WATCHLIST

Josh Gordon (2% owned) Talk about the secret being out. Josh Gordon, the infamous supplementary draft selection by the Browns, has really become his own highlight reel these past two weeks. Gordon is turning into this year’s Torrey Smith. He’s someone that can stretch the field, but owners can only cash in with if he connects on a hail mary type of pass. Gordon has elite speed, now it’s just a matter of him catching more passes. As soon as he gets one of those 70-yard touchdowns, owners are happy with him for the day, but this is fantasy football and we want more. If you’re feeling lucky, go ahead and invest in Gordon to see if he can continue his recent trend. The Browns are playing at Indianapolis against the Colts this week, so this might be another coming out party for Gordon. Keep in mind that he’s been successful against the Giants and Bengals, two defenses that are highly regarded in the fantasy football world. Brandon Weeden likes to throw it deep, so it might be time to believe in Josh Gordon as a serious option going forward.

FANTASY HEADLINES TO FOLLOW THIS WEEK

-Trying to find replacement options for Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan during their BYE week

-How will the loses of Ray Lewis and LaDarius Webb affect the Ravens D/ST value going forward?

-Is AJ Green becoming the best WR in the league?

-Rams K Greg Zuerlein missed his first NFL field goal, but is still the best kicker in fantasy

-Greg Jennings still hurt, while Jermichael Finley’s stock is drastically falling

-Adrian Peterson hasn’t score a touchdown since opening day, expect that to change this week

-Christian Ponder is the next best QB option in fantasy

-DeMarco Murray is only out for one week

-Shonn Greene was a one hit wonder last week

BE SURE TO TUNE IN TO THE FANTASY FILES ON WNSP EVERY SUNDAY FROM 10AM-11AM CT FOR ALL OF THE LATEST NEWS AND STRATEGIES TO WIN YOUR FANTASY LEAGUE.

 Posted by at 2:42 pm
Oct 082012
 

    Running back has been such a tough position to figure out for owners this fantasy season.

    Ever since Nick Saban showcased the Ronnie Brown-Ricky Williams combo with the Dolphins, fantasy football has never been the same.

    Before, owners could rely on 32 solid feature backs.

    Once coaches saw how effective having two solid rushers was, the position saw a major increase options.

    Owners now have to learn the second and even third string running backs for every team.

    It’s not that there are that many injuries in the league, but rather that coaches are decreasing the amount of carries that their backs handle. On one hand, it’s good for their longevity, but that’s not what fantasy owners rare worried about.

    This season has been full of injuries at the running back position, forcing owners to invest faith in third string running backs at times.

     The Arizona Cardinals, the surprise team of the year thus far, have lost two of their feature backs in Beanie Wells going to the IR and Ryan Williams suffering yet another season-ending injury.

     The only back left on their depth chart is Larod Stephens-Howling.

     The four-year veteran out of Pitt has been tearing up the stats this year with 12 carries to his name and a touchdown. By the way, he has a total of one rushing yard on the season. That’s not a typo. In 12 carries, he has mustered one measly yard.

      Is that because of not getting enough snaps? No. He split carries with Ryan Williams, after Bean Wells went down, and still hasn’t produced.

      I know that you’re desperate for running backs, however you can get them, but don’t stoop to this level.

      Just because the Cardinals are playing the Bills this week doesn’t mean that he’s going to be an overnight fantasy stud.

      Let’s take a look at the more realistic options that you need to add to your team…

 Alex Green (13% owned) Who the heck is Alex Green? Unless you were watching the Colts and Packers thriller on Sunday, this is probably the first time you’re hearing his name. Cedric Benson was proving to owners that he was worthy of being a reliable fantasy back, until he suffered an foot injury that’s going to keep him out at least eight weeks. In all honesty, his season is probably over with. In comes Alex Green. He’s a second year pro out of Hawaii, that measures at six foot tall and 225 pounds. I know the running game isn’t exactly the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the University of Hawaii, but more quality pros have come out of there than you think. What can Alex Green do for you in this offense? Pretty much the same thing that you were getting from Cedric Benson this year. They’re pretty much the same size, with the same skill set. You can expect Green to catch a lot of passes out of the backfield on those safety net, checkdown routes that Rodgers loves so much this year. He’s got the frame that will be utilized on third downs and goal line opportunities. Last week we saw how John Kuhn, who scored a good bit of the rushing touchdowns for Green Bay last year, took one away from Green against the Colts. I wouldn’t be too worried about that happening going forward, but do be mindful of James Starks’ presence in the long run. Green will have a full week of practice, with an increased workload as the feature, and should be set to be a viable flex option in his debut versus the Texans on Sunday Night Football.

Kendall Wright (11% owned) He went in the first round of this past draft for a reason. Talking about in real life, not fantasy. He’s not to that point yet, but he’s getting there. On Thursday night, the Titans are going up against a tough Steelers defense. Chris Johnson has been pathetic this season from a fantasy standpoint, Kenny Britt will likely be limited in his return to the lineup, and Matt Hasselbeck has found a new favorite target to throw to. Kendall Wright caught nine or eleven passes from Hasselbeck last week against the Vikings. Tennessee is going to have to throw the ball a lot in order to stay competitive in this game, not just because of Johnson’s lack of production, but because the Steelers will look to shut him down early and often. He can stretch the field, catch the short passes, and has already scored two touchdowns on the season. We all know that this is a tough week for owners that are trying to find substitutes for their key contributors that are on bye weeks, so consider the up-and-coming Kendall Wright.

Domenik Hixon (16% owned) I don’t know how this guy wasn’t a top addition last week, especially with Hakeem Nicks continuing to miss action, but he still presents viable value this week. Nicks is questionable to return for this big playoff rematch between the 49ers and Giants on Sunday and they’re going to need all the weapons that they can get. Hixon has assumed Mario Manningham’s from a year ago and has produced quite well in the past two games. He’s catch five and six passes, respectively, in his last two games. Hixon serves as Eli Manning’s safety net, since defenders are starting to capitalize on Martellus Bennett. The 49ers are a tougher defense that the Browns and Eagles, but Hixon is a good enough option that matchups won’t affect his value.

WATCHLIST

Vick Ballard (0% owned) This is another week of stretches at the running back position. Donald Brown is listed as being OUT against the Jets this week, as interim coach Bruce Arians has already announced Vick Ballard as the starter. Who is Ballard? He was a fifth round selection by the Colts in this year’s draft after finishing his college career at Mississippi State. He has decent size at 5’10, 217, with 4.6 speed. What does that translate for fantasy owners? Pretty much the same production that you got out of Donald Brown. Ballard is a risky pickup this week, because the Colts are on the road against the Jets. You can throw out all of the statistics about how successful rushers have been against the Jets, because this rookie is getting his first full load of carries in the NFL. The good news is that he doesn’t have to split a ton of carries with anyone else. It’ll be his show for the most part of the day. You can expect the Colts to throw it a lot agains the Jets depleted secondary, but Ballard will get his opportunities here and there. If he is successful against the Jets, he’s been a more valuable play the following week against the Browns as Donald Brown continues to recover from his knee injury for the next two to three weeks.

FANTASY HEADLINES TO FOLLOW THIS WEEK

-IND RB Donald Brown out 2-3 Weeks with a Knee injury

-GB RB Cedric Benson out at least 8 weeks with foot injury

-ARZ searching for a running back to replace Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells

-ARZ rumored to be in trade talks with the Saints for RB Chris Ivory

-ARZ RBs Larod Stephens-Howling and William Powell to split carries against the Bills

-Lions have 21 days to activate RB Jahvid Best off of the PUP (physically unable to perform) list

-Brady Quinn likely to start for the Chiefs against the Bucs

-Robert Griffin III to take concussion test on Wednesday, listed as questionable vs Vikings

 Posted by at 2:46 pm
Oct 022012
 

   Five weeks into the Fantasy Football season, a lot is running through your mind.

   Your peers have probably been burning up your phone lines about trying to get a deal done, giving you a window to really cash in.

   It goes back to my favorite Jerry McGuire line: “Help me, to help you.”

   That’s not just a classic, it’s the mentality that you need to have whenever you’re involved with fantasy sports negotiations.

   I didn’t say that you had to be sincere, but just that it was the way to approach the deals.

   You may very well find yourself with too many players excelling at one position. Not a bad problem to have though. Whenever you do run across that much expendability, you have to cash in.

   The only way you win championships in fantasy sports is by constantly putting on your general manager’s hat and making the deals that count. I’m just saying, you should be working those text lines harder than anyone else in your league.

   For some strange reason, every since I’ve become a fantasy analyst, no one in my leagues wants to deal with me anymore. You don’t have that problem, so take advantage of it.

   I don’t care if you own Drew Brees. If you have a hot ticket like that, you better cash it in.

   The name of the game is balance. If you don’t have balance, you shouldn’t even be thinking about making the playoffs.

   Pick up that cell phone and start building for the long run before it’s too late.

   In the meantime, let’s take a look at the waiver gems that can balance out your team…

James Jones (21% owned) Does this surprise you? It shouldn’t. Green Bay has a ton of weapons, but the recent loss of Greg Jennings has to open up an opportunity for someone to shine. Jennings suffered a groin injury against the Saints last week, leaving him doubtful for their trip to Indy this week. The Colts sport one of the most patched up secondaries in the league with the like of Vontae Davis covering, so James Jones will have a great opportunity to shine. He’s caught at least four to five passes and 50+ yards in three of his four games, scoring two touchdowns last week against the Saints. I’m not sticking up for the Saints defense, but they’re at least better than the Colts. Jones has been the second-most consistent receiver for the Packers this season and he can be a great flex option to help you out during this crucial BYE week for some of your key players.

Davone Bess (7 % owned) Why isn’t Brian Hartline on this list? Well a couple of reasons: 1. Someone probably picked him up because of the overhype two weeks ago, 2. He’s not a sure thing, 3. Defenses will start to focus on him. That third one is a key feature. Someone has to get open after defenses single out Hartline, and his name is Davone Bess. This guy is a workhorse that has been underutilized during the entire Tony Sparano era in Miami. He’s got three games of catching five passes or more, coming off of his best game against the Cardinals when he had seven for 123 yards. One factor to look at is the matter of Bess had a five catch day with 86 yards in the previous week against the Jets, while Hartline squeaked out one catch for 41 yards. The moral of the story is that Hartline was coming off of a monster week against Oakland with nine catches for 111 yards, then failed to even be relevant the next week. Bess on the other hand has produced back-to-back quality weeks of at least five catches for 80+ yards. This is a matter of looking deeper than the hype. I guarantee that everyone in your league is going after Hartline, so be the smarter owner and get Bess.

Vikings Defense/Special Teams (4% owned) The Purple People Eaters? Not exactly. The Vikings defense hasn’t been relevant for about two seasons, when they were one of the must-own options. After surrendering 23 points in their first two games to the Colts and Jags, Minnesota has turned it around and turned some heads in the process. They have only allowed 13 points per game these last two weeks, racking up a total of four turnovers and two touchdowns on kick returns. I’m not saying that their special teams are elite, but they did stand tall against two prolific offenses in Detroit and San Francisco. The key reason for their success is because of the balanced success by their offense with AP and Christian Ponder. If you look back to why they haven’t been good these past two seasons, it’s primarily because they haven’t had a lot of balance on offense. Unless you were drinking the Seahawks kool aid, entering the draft, you’re probably searching for a favorable defensive matchup. The Vikings play the banged up Titans this week, so consider them as a viable option going forward.

WATCHLIST

Jahvid Best (1% owned) With only being owned in one percent of leagues, that means there’s a pretty good chance he’s available in yours. Unless you’re that owner that drafted him late and have been hanging onto him all these weeks, you should be good to go. Best is set to return next week against the Bears, after being on the PUP list all season. Unless there’s a crazy injury to Mikel Leshoure during the BYE week, you can expect Best to be eased back into action. Once he’s a full time contributor, expect the Lions to split carries between Leshoure and Best. He’s a dual threat whenever he’s healthy, but comes with that mark of being injury prone. He’s a home run hitter, capable of breaking off long yards through the air or ground, so view him as a flex option initially with upside towards being a number two option. Go ahead and pick him up this week, since you need help at running back and no one else is thinking about doing the same thing.

 Posted by at 11:31 am