New Coach, new players, but same old Indians?

     Not so fast.

     Cleveland pulled a fast one by hiring former Red Sox Manager Terry Francona, after he spent the 2012 as an ESPN analyst.

     He was let go after the collapse with the Red Sox in 2011, but could end up being the prize of the offseason.

     The Indians have had issues being consistent contenders in the AL Central, primarily because of their constant rebuilding mindset.

      Grady Sizemore seemed to be the only veteran on the team for the longest time, but he could never be healthy enough to stay on the field.

     That era has since moved on with the end to Sizemore’s career and the new faces that Cleveland brought in this offseason.

     They went out and spend some money to bring in some top free agents in outfielders Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher.

     Those two players, alone, offer instant upgrades for the Tribe’s mediocre outfield.

     Cleveland was also a key piece in one of the biggest offseason trades, involving the Diamondbacks and Reds.

     They had to trade away one of their most marketable players in Shin Soo Choo, but did get a potential future ace in Arizona’s top pitching prospect Trevor Bauer.

     The Tribe would fill out the rest of their roster with spare free agent pickups that are familiar with Francona, including Utility Mike Aviles and first baseman Mark Reynolds.

     They enter this season with five new starters in their lineup, hoping for a boost in production.

     The major issue that could depict the Indians’ run this season is with their closer position.

     Chris Perez is coming up on a contract year and suffered a shoulder injury this spring.

     Cleveland would like to trade him around the deadline, but they’re not going to hold back one of the best closers in the league if he’s healthy.

     They could invest more in Vinnie Pestano, their current setup man, but won’t increase until they do something about Perez further into the season.

     Francona knows how to build a winner, but he’s looking to make some noise this season in the AL Central.

     Let’s see if the new-look Indians have what it takes to contend for the divisional title…

INDIANS PROJECTED LINEUP

1. Michael Bourn CF Has the ability to steal between 40-60 bases, 2.80 hitter, generates around 90 runs and 70 rbi’s, doesn’t hit double digit home runs. He’s a solid no.3 OF option because of the lack of power.

2. Asdrubal Cabrera SS His numbers took a slight decline from his breakout year in 2011. He’s a .270 hitter that can contribute in every category. Expect around 15+ home runs/stolen bases, and a fair number of runs/rbi’s. 

3. Jason Kipnis 2B He’s on a contract year, so he’ll have plenty of incentive to take his game to the next level. He can contribute in every category, needs to get his home run numbers up, but is a solid no.2 2nd option.

4. Nick Swisher RF He’s not an elite name, but he puts up elite numbers. You’re getting a .270+ average, 20+ home runs, and 80+ runs/rbi’s. Take advantage of his low draft position when you’re looking for your third OF options.

5. Carlos Santana C Statistically had a better season than his breakout year in 2011, but had a horrible start to 2012. He is a solid option that is ranked in a lower draft position this season, so believe that he can bounce back.

6. Mark Reynolds 1B He’s nothing more than a swing for the fences DH type of player. He’s not someone that you can count on, so leave him to waivers until you get desperate for power later in the season. 

7. Michael Brantley LF He’s an average hitter, can’t get double digit home runs or stolen bases, and 60+ runs/rbi’s. Look elsewhere.

8. Lonnie Chisenhall 3B He’s one of their top prospects, but hasn’t proven that he can hit for a very high average at the major league level. He’s going to be put through some growing pains, so don’t invest in him just yet.

9. Mike Aviles DH He’s only good enough to be a rotating DH in this lineup, he has fantasy value if he had an everyday job, but until that happens, he’s nothing worst investing in.

PROJECTED ROTATION

1. Justin Masterson High ERA, lower strikeout totals than you’d want in an ace, and he can barely get over a .500 record. He’s nothing more than one of the last options in your rotation on draft day, hoping he has a breakout.

2. Ubaldo Jimenez High risk, high reward type of player. He hasn’t been very rewarding since joining the Indians two seasons ago, but he still racks up good strikeout totals. His wild approach makes him a risky pickup, but owners continue to look at him from his 2010 form. 

3. Brett Myers Comes back out of the bullpen as a full time starter for the first time in two seasons. He can be a productive starter, keeps an ERA around 3+, and can generate a decent amount of strikeouts, just don’t invest in him until late or in post draft pickups.

4. Zach McAllister He’s never done anything to make you want to own him on your fantasy team. He’ll be the first one gone as soon as Trevor Bauer returns from his minor league stint.

5. Scott Kazmir Trying to rejuvenate his major league career, typically sports a 3+ ERA, can be a high strikeout guy, but needs to prove that he can be productive and stay healthy before you invest in him.

RP-Chris Perez He’s one of the top closers to have in fantasy. He did suffer a shoulder injury in the spring, the Indians are looking to move him before the trade deadline, and Vinnie Pestano is waiting in the wing. That doesn’t mean that he’ll be a setup man on another team if he does get traded, so continue to invest in him on draft day.

FANTASY X-FACTORS

Trevor Bauer was one of Arizona’s top pitching prospects, before he was traded in that three team trade earlier in the offseason. The Indians invested in Bauer as their ace of the future, but it will be until at least June before he arrives from the minors. He had a brief stint in the majors last year, but suffered a season-ending injury. He showcased flashes of brilliance, and comparisons to a young Tim Lincecum, but became more of a liability. He’s got the ability to be one of the next great pitchers in fantasy, so keep him on your post draft watchlist, as he could arrive in early June. He can generate a lot of strikeouts, be very durable, and maintains a low ERA. Let’s be honest, his competition is Zach McAllister and Scott Kazmir…enough said.

Vinnie Pestano is an unknown name to most fantasy owners. He’s was the primary setup man for Chris Perez the past couple of seasons and could unseat him this year. Depending if Perez is healthy enough to be the Opening Day closer, Pestano’s fantasy value could skyrocket. He was one of the top setup men in the league last season in stops, he can generate a lot of strikeouts, and come with a variety of ways to attack batters. Keep an eye on the health of Chris Perez, because Pestano might keep the closer job if he steps in.

 

     If there was an award for the luckiest team in the league, it would be the St. Louis Cardinals.

     Not that they’re not that good, but they just always seem to spark some magic around the playoffs.

     They played in one of the first sudden death wild card matchups against the Braves and capitalized on some of that playoff magic.

     The infield fly rule kept St. Louis alive in the game, that could’ve put the momentum back towards the Braves.

     Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they weren’t able to go all the way as they did the previous year.

      At times, it was an afterthought that they were the defending World Series champions.

     They came into the season with a stronger lineup, with the addition of Carlos Beltran, but had some questions with their pitching staff.

     Adam Wainwright was coming off of Tommy John Surgery, Chris Carpenter struggled with his own injuries, and they were still searching for a viable closer.

     Once again, the Cardinals magic bailed them out.

     Not only did they have one of the best closers in the league in Jason Motte, but they had one of the best rookie arms in Lance Lynn.

     The Cardinals were once again a dominant force in the NL Central, but they weren’t able to capture the divisional title.

     They enter this offseason with a relatively strong lineup, but they’ll miss some key contributors in their ace Chris Carpenter and starting shortstop Rafael Furcal.

     St. Louis allowed the aging Lance Berkman to walk, after the emergence of Allen Craig last season, but they always seem to just plug the next person in and keep going.

     Even though they’ll be missed Furcal, Carpenter’s absence could be the biggest negative this season.

     It’s never a good thing to lose your ace, but they might have a new one on the way.

     Shelby Miller was brought in towards the end of last season to be a contributor out of the bullpen during their playoff run.

     He’s their top pitching prospect and is projected to be the ace of their staff down the road.

     Unfortunately, Miller wasn’t able to capture a job in the Opening Day rotation after struggling in spring games.

     Joe Kelly, an average arm out of their farm system, will be their number five starter until Miller is ready to come up.

     The absence of Carpenter and free agent Kyle Lohse opened two opportunities in the rotation, but don’t underestimate the Cardinals.

     They’ll continue to get younger as the season progresses, and you can expect some more playoff magic in the second half of the season.

     Let’s take a look at the underrated gems that you can get in this season’s fantasy drafts…

CARDINALS PROJECTED LINEUP

1. Jon Jay CF He’s a player that is valued more for how he hits for AVG, but not power. He stole more bases in 2012 (19), and could generate more runs this season, but his low power totals keeps him from being elite.

2. Allen Craig 1B He’s the rising star of this lineup. Back-to-back seasons of hitting .300+, doubled his power production from the previous year, with just an extra 40 games in ’12. He’s a HUGE value pick to be a 1B/OF in your draft.

3. Matt Holliday LF He doesn’t steal bases anymore, but Holliday is still one of the elite outfielders to own. You’re getting a .290+ hitter, 25+ home runs, and 90+ runs/rbi’s.

4. Carlos Beltran RF Injury concerns keep Beltran’s draft position so low, but he still hits 25+ homers, and can be an elite no.2 OF option. The only issues with Beltran is his batting AVG and his injury history.

5. Yadier Molina C Coming off of career highs in every category, but he’s still a .300 hitter on an average year. He’s top 10 fantasy catcher, but in the lower half.

6. David Freese 3B He double his power numbers in ’12, he’s a .290+ hitter on an average year, he is injury prone, but he’s a rising underrated option to get late in drafts. 

7. Matt Carpenter 2B This guy is the definition of versatility. He’s eligible to play 1B, 3B, OF, and soon 2B. He’s a .290 hitter that is set to have a breakout year. He’ll be one of the most valuable 2B options to own this year, but you’ll just have to wait the first two weeks for him to become eligible there.

8. Pete Kozma SS He’s merely a fill-in because of Furcal’s injury, don’t bother investing in him on draft day.

PROJECTED ROTATION

1. Adam Wainwright Had an above .500 season off of TJ surgery. He can get around 200 strikeouts on a healthy season, he can pitch deep into games, and is always one of the best second half pitchers in the league. He is healthy and should be viewed as an elite option on draft day.

2. Jaime Garcia Injuries dropped Garcia down to a low .500 season, after being a consistent 13-7 option the past two seasons. 

3. Jake Westbrook He sports a high ERA, low strikeout totals, and could be fizzled out of the lineup by June. He’s the weakest link and shouldn’t even be considered on draft day.

4. Lance Lynn Was the breakout pitcher of the year, sporting a 18-7 record that was accompanied by a respectable ERA and 180 strikeouts. He might be the most valuable arm on the staff because of how late he pitches in the rotation.

5. Joe Kelly He beat out Shelby Miller for the Opening Day roster position, but how long that lasts is the real question. He’s more of a game manager than he is a strikeout artist, but he’s nothing that you want to invest in.

RP-Jason Motte 42 saves in his first full season of action as the full time closer. He keeps an ERA under 3, produces high strikeout totals, and is on a team that will create a lot of save opportunities.

FANTASY X-FACTORS

Matt Carpenter just might be the next big name to emerge for the Cardinals. He’s going to be one of the most versatile options in fantasy. He can play 1B, 3B, and OF, but owners are excited about the potential of him being a 2B option. It’s going to take two weeks before he can gain eligibility  but he’s a great value pick because of how late you can get him. He’s a .290+ hitter that can be an infield version of Jon Jay, but with a little more power. He hasn’t played a full season yet, which is why you shouldn’t judge him on his six homers last season. When you’re looking for a sleeper in the slim second basemen pool on draft day, make sure you remember Carpenter.

Shelby Miller is the next best thing for the Cardinals pitching staff. He had an opportunity to win the number five job in the Opening Day rotation, but fell short to Joe Kelly after a dismal spring. Miller is the Cardinals’ top pitching prospect and their future ace. He’s one of the top prospects in all of baseball, he generates a lot of strikeouts, and is a great game manager. The issue with Miller is the fact that he is very aggressive, which sometimes leads to a high ERA. He’ll start off the season in Triple A to work on some mechanics, but expect him to be called up eventually. Miller is a post-draft watchlist stud candidate.

Oscar Taveras is one of the rising stars in the league. Fantasy owners are always looking for this year’s Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, after probably missing out on them last season, and Taveras could be that player. The only problem is, that he’ll only get called up if one of the Cardinals’ outfielders struggle or get hurt. Beltran is the most likely of the bunch to have injury issues, but it would have to be a length DL stint to get Taveras called up. That’s not to say that St.Louis couldn’t make a move in June or around the trade deadline, but he’ll be the most delayed out of all of the top prospects. He’s a 5-tool player that will eventually be one of the first players you’ll want to draft in your league going forward. Keep him on your watchlist as the season progresses.